Stock-picking is fun. But the odds of winning are dismal.

A W. P. Carey finance expert's stock market research analyzed the compound returns of more than 64,000 random stocks between 1991 and 2020.

In this story published July 28, 2025, in Barron's:

My work shows that the odds a randomly selected individual stock will outperform the overall market over a 10-year interval is less than one in three. Advocates may well point out that their favorite stocks aren't selected at random. That leaves the ball in their court to demonstrate that their picks are better than random.

— Hendrik Bessembinder, professor of finance and Francis J. and Mary B. Labriola Chair in Competitive Business