http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/ Knowledge@W.P. Carey is an online resource that offers the latest business insights, information, and research from a variety of sources. Content includes analysis of current business trends, interviews with industry leaders and faculty, articles based on the most recent business research, book reviews, conference and seminar reports, and links to other websites. en-us Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:00:00 PST Copyright (c) 2005 the Arizona Board of Regents at the W. P. Carey school of Business, Arizona State University Economics and Public Policy http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1827 For the first time in the recession, all 50 states lost jobs over the year in September, reports Lee McPheters, editor of Economy@W. P. Carey. Before the latest figures were released, North Dakota had continued to add jobs year over year, albeit at a slowing pace. But the September numbers show North Dakota non-farm jobs declining by 300 compared to a year ago. Nationally, the economy lost 5.8 million jobs over the year, a decrease of 4.2 percent. Economics and Public Policy http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1825 "The recession probably ended in June, if we had to pick a date," according to Jan Hatzius, Chief U.S. Economist at Goldman Sachs. But that doesn't mean it's time to break out the champagne. The return of up-trending charts may sound like good news for the economy, but it's going to be at least a couple of years before growth picks up in earnest. Hatzius is this year's recipient of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy. Economics and Public Policy http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1821 The deepest recession since World War II was caused by the collapse of the financial sector, but that disintegration is not proof that markets don't work, said Stanford economist Edward Lazear, who was chief economic advisor to former President George W. Bush. In fact, he said, the markets dealt swift and brutal punishment to those who made mistakes. Economics and Public Policy http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1823 "The idea of ownership," said W. P. Carey Economics Professor William Boyes, "is that we can do anything we want with what we own as long as it does not harm anyone else or violate anyone else's property rights." By that definition, our common concept of ownership might often be called into question. When we go to the pet store and buy a dog or a cat, for example, we think of ourselves as pet owners. But the law regulates how we can treat our pets. That, Boyes said, means either we don’t own them or that they have private property rights as well. The law regulates how we treat ourselves, too. American history is rife with debate over the concept of property rights; the debate over abortion is a recent example. Real Estate http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1822 Single-family home prices in the Phoenix metro market have finally stopped diving, but the townhouse/condominium segment of the market continues to sink, according to the latest ASU Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI). Finance professor Karl Guntermann, who compiles the index with research associate Adam Nowak, reports that home prices declined 28 percent in July compared to July 2008, continuing a welcome moderating trend that started a few months ago. But analysis of townhouse/condominium data -- a new feature of the ASU-RSI -- shows that drop prices in that sector is still gaining speed. Economics and Public Policy http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1820 Economists, sociologists and other observers are divided in their view of consumer spending in the post-recession era that lies (somewhere) ahead. While there is little controversy about the short term outlook -- the dominant consensus is that consumers will spend less and save more -- the opinions of analysts diverge for the years after 2010, says Lee McPheters, editor of Economy@W. P. Carey. Some believe that consumer spending will show considerable strength as unemployment rates fall and consumers move to replace ageing durable goods such as autos and appliances. The alternative view is that the current contraction has been a "game changer" for consumers. High unemployment rates, foreclosures and tight credit markets have combined to bring a permanent new frugality to consumer behavior that will linger for years, bringing a "New Normal" economy with a reduced emphasis on the consumer. Real Estate http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1819 Forecasts by the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip real estate consensus panel show that perceptions of the metro real estate market continued to deteriorate in the third quarter of 2009. Projections for residential development are less optimistic than for second quarter, but even so, this sector is on its way to becoming a positive force in the economy. On the other hand, the commercial sector is sliding toward a hole. Real Estate http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=1815 The troubled Phoenix real estate market has experienced high levels of activity this summer. With the federal tax credit ending soon, first-time home buyers have been scrambling to get into a deal. Meantime, investors anticipating a rise in prices are coming back to the market. Much of the activity involves foreclosures and short sales -- transactions that can be complicated and sometimes include a surprise at the end for sellers. Jay Q. Butler, a professor of real estate at the W. P. Carey School of Business, has been tracking this market since the early 1980's. He says the future of the market depends on what happens in the Arizona economy.