Knowledge@W. P. Carey -- Real Estate

Review: "After the Fall: Opportunities and Strategies for Real Estate Investing in the Coming Decade"

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:39:44 EST

From seasoned real estate writer Steve Bergsman comes this message: Proceed with caution, be patient and realize that there are many kinds of real estate markets -- each with particular potentials and pitfalls. The Arizona-native's latest book, "After the Fall: Opportunities and Strategies for Real Estate Investing in the Coming Decade," helps investors figure out what to make of today's commercial, industrial, retail, multi-family, single-family, condominium, second-home and vacation real estate.

ASU-RSI: Beginning of the End of Price Plunge?

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 19:16:40 EST

Sales data from March indicates that a trend change in housing prices might be underway in the beleaguered Phoenix metro market. According to the ASU-RSI (Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index), prices in the metro area declined at the same rate in March 2008 -- 37 percent -- as they did in February, suggesting that the 25-month swoon may be easing.

ASU-RSI: A Slowing Rate of Decline Equals Good News

Mon, 18 May 2009 16:01:31 EST

Phoenix metro real estate prices declined 37 percent in February compared to February 2008, but preliminary data for March and April show that the rate of decline may be slowing. "In this market, that would be considered good news," said real estate professor Karl Guntermann who compiles the ASU-RSI (Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index) with research associate Alex Horenstein.

ASU-RSI: Preliminary Data Offer Glimmer of Hope for Plunging Phoenix Home Prices

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:22:23 EST

Arizona real estate markets tend to swing wildly. During boom periods, home prices accelerate precipitously, but when the bubble bursts, residential values sometimes slink all the way back to the price level at the start of cyclical upturn. However, the tend line is different in this recession -- things are actually much worse, as housing prices in the Phoenix metropolitan area have overshot the beginning of the cycle mark, according to the latest data from the Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI). But while the news of home value does seem to be grim, there are nuggets of hope in the preliminary ASU-RSI data as well.

Forecast: After Residential Market Bottoms Out, Commercial Construction Will Continue To Fall

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 20:11:20 EST

The 13 economists who track the real estate construction industry for the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip Economic Forecast are projecting that the metro area's residential market will bottom out in 2009, however down times will continue on for the multi family and commercial sector. The Greater Phoenix Blue Chip Economic Forecast appears quarterly on Economy@W. P. Carey, a new web site offered by K@WPC that covers the economy in the western United States.

ASU-RSI: Economic Malaise Slowing Arrival of Real Estate Relief

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 15:52:15 EST

Malaise in the economy is slowing down the arrival of relief for Phoenix real estate and lengthening what is already a record-breaking run of declining prices, according to an analysis of the Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI). The rate of decline had been showing signs of leveling off last fall, but then the financial crises hit, further injuring the limping market, said Finance Professor Karl Guntermann, who compiles the index with research associate Alex Horenstein. Home prices in the metro-Phoenix area dropped 33 percent in 2008, and in January and February prices are projected to drop even more. Prices have been declining for 22 months now, exceeding the previous record: a 17-month plunge in prices between 1989 and 1991.

The Next Shoe Just Dropped

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:50:02 EST

Although nonresidential building held up longer than residential activity in the current recession, the nonresidential downturn now has started and is expected to continue into 2010. The timing of the rise and fall of these two construction categories differs. Nonresidential building began to increase strongly at the beginning of 2006, just as residential activity was sagging, and double-digit growth continued in seven of the next 10 quarters, partially offsetting the drag on GDP created by the residential downturn. But nonresidential building hit the skids in the fourth quarter of 2008 with an annualized decrease of 5.9 percent. Now, looking forward, analysts see no bottom in sight for nonresidential spending during the current year.

ASU-RSI: Record Breaking Fall in Phoenix Market Continues

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 10:04:21 EST

Real estate expert and finance Professor Karl Guntermann has been predicting for a long time that the decline in Phoenix area home prices would probably bottom out by the end of 2008. But, after November's report showed a 32 percent decline and projections for December and January looking grim as well, even Guntermann is scratching his head in dismay. "I thought as late as last month things were going to bottom out," Guntermann notes, "but the rate of decline is still going south." In fact, he added, it may take another year to get the rate of decline to zero.

ASU-RSI: Extreme Appreciation in Phoenix Real Estate Gone � All Gone

Fri, 16 Jan 2009 10:29:30 EST

The extreme appreciation that thrilled Phoenix area residents who bought their homes in the period just before the run up is gone -- all gone. But the downward slide isn't over yet. The median price of Phoenix metro houses declined to $160,000 in October 2008, according to the latest data from Arizona State University - Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI). "That puts the median house price back to the level of March 2004, close to the start of the current cycle," notes finance an real estate Professor Karl Guntermann. "If the median house price drops below $150,000, we would be back before the cycle began," he added. Apparently, that is where the Phoenix metro is headed.

Anthony Sanders: A Voluntary Private Market Solution

Wed, 17 Dec 2008 15:23:34 EST

If the federal government really wants to stem the financial crisis, it must decisively address the huge -- and still growing -- number of delinquent and soon-to-be-delinquent mortgages, according to finance and real estate Professor Anthony Sanders. "The underlying core of the economy's problem is that the housing and mortgage market is still collapsing at record speeds," he said. Sanders proposed a voluntary private market solution in a December speech before the Dean's Council of 100, an advisory group at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

Luxury Homebuilder Geoffrey Edmunds Predicts a High Rise, Upscale Future for Phoenix Core

Wed, 17 Dec 2008 15:26:06 EST

Luxury homebuilder Geoffrey Edmunds says the Phoenix market is suffering from a troika of price correction, financing troubles and oversupply -- and has yet to hit bottom. But when it recovers, the market will look different, he says. People will be less interested in developments flung out into the desert, and more attracted to the core -- inside the Route 101 loop. Many will be looking for what he calls "custom homes in a vertical configuration." Edmunds, who was inducted into the W. P. Carey School's Hall of Fame this fall, helped bring that style of living to Phoenix and California.

ASU-RSI: Phoenix Home Prices Continue 'Unprecedented' Decline

Tue, 16 Dec 2008 20:15:14 EST

Housing prices in Phoenix continued their downward march in September, extending a record string of declines that started 19 months ago. Home prices fell 28 percent this September compared with the same month last year, according to the Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI). Karl Guntermann, the Fred E. Taylor professor of Real Estate at the W. P. Carey School of Business, called the extended decline in prices "unprecedented." Since the July 2006 peak of the regional housing market, prices measured by the ASU-RSI have declined over 30 percent.

ASU-RSI: Drop in Phoenix Real Estate Prices Breaks Infamous Record

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:07:46 EST

In the late 1980s home prices in Phoenix declined for a grueling 17 straight months before bottoming out in the early 1990s. That downturn pummeled the savings and loan industry, and it set the record for length. In August, however, this dubious record was broken when home prices in Phoenix declined for the 18^th straight month, according to the latest data from the Arizona Sate University – Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI).

Housing Market Continues to Fall -- Will Non-Residential Real Estate Be Next?

Thu, 13 Nov 2008 13:23:42 EST

The U.S. real estate market, which was central to the global financial crisis, remains deeply troubled, and a full recovery could be years away, according to industry experts and analysts at the W. P. Carey School of Business. The problems of real estate and the economy are especially severe in Arizona and other Sunbelt states, where construction is a cornerstone of the local economies. As the housing market continues to fall, non-residential real estate -- which includes offices, retail, warehouses, and other structures -- has remained a bright spot in the national economy, but now there are signs it too is headed for a slowdown.

ASU-RSI: Duration of Real Estate Price Decline Matches the 17 Month Record

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:39:50 EST

Back in the early 1990s, the Phoenix metro area -- like the rest of the country -- was suffering through a profound real estate recession and house prices declined for a record 17 straight months. Like Lou Gehrig's record for consecutive games played, it was thought it would never be equaled. But, the latest data for July shows a larger decline from one year prior, making it the 17^th month in a row home prices have declined in the Valley of the Sun.

ASU-RSI: Phoenix Home Prices Continue Their Descent

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:21:07 EST

The fall in housing prices continues, with the latest data from the ASU Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI) showing that in June home values had dropped 22.8 percent compared to June 2007. That makes four months of double-digit declines in year-over-year price comparisons. The only bright light is that the rate of decline is slowing.

ASU-RSI: Phoenix Home Prices Down More Than 20 Percent from 2007

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 15:33:36 EST

The Phoenix metro area housing market is closing on a record. And unlike the Olympics this has more to do with losing than winning. Back in the 1990 to 1991 years, during the last serious real estate recession that roiled Arizona, house prices on a 12-month basis declined for 17 straight months. "Now at 15 months of declining home prices, the current weakness in the housing market is approaching the duration experienced in the early 1990s," reports Karl Guntermann, the Fred E. Taylor professor of Real Estate at the W. P. Carey School of Business. Guntermann and research associate Alex Horenstein put together the Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index.

ASU-RSI: Phoenix Home Prices Plummet in April

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 19:24:30 EST

The overall price decline for the Phoenix metro housing market took a dramatic, 18 percent leap downward in April, which was unsettling since March numbers were already very weak. Part of the problem has been a wave of foreclosures hitting the market; this tends to dramatically impact average housing prices, says Karl Guntermann, a professor of real estate at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

ASU-RSI: Phoenix Home Prices Decline by Double Digits

Wed, 18 Jun 2008 18:59:37 EST

There's trouble in paradise -- housing troubles to be exact. In March, for the first time ever, home prices in the overall Phoenix metro area declined by double digits. The Arizona State University-Repeat Sales Index (ASU-RSI), which looks back three months to March, showed that average home prices dropped 13 percent, a sharp difference from the 9.3 percent drop reported in February. This current downturn is often compared to the last great real estate recession that walloped the Phoenix metro area in the early 1990s, says Karl Guntermann, professor of real estate at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

ASU-RSI: Phoenix Housing Prices Continue to Fall

Wed, 21 May 2008 15:26:31 EST

Arizona's most severe real estate downturn began in the late 1980s and stretched deeply into the next decade. At the abyss, home prices in the state had declined (on a repeat-sale basis) for a record 17 straight months. The current economic slowdown has resulted in a similarly dreary stretch for Arizona homeowners. As of February, home prices had declined for 11 consecutive months and there is a good chance the state will surpass the old record set almost two decades ago, reports Karl Guntermann, professor of real estate at the W. P. Carey School of Business.