Every Western State Expected to Lose Jobs This Year

Published: October 13, 2009 in Knowledge@W.P. Carey

Employment figures for the Western states are now available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through August. Every Western state has lost jobs compared to the same eight-month period last year.

Nationally, nonfarm employment through August was down by -3.7 percent. Several Western states (led by Wyoming) saw milder job losses. But California, Idaho, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona all have lost jobs at a faster pace than the nation on a year-to-date basis through August (see table).

Job Losses in Western States
State	Growth 2008	YTD** 2009	Forecast 2010
United States*	-0.4%	-3.7%	-0.5%
Wyoming	3.3	-1.3	0.8
Texas	2.1	-1.6	0.7
Washington	0.9	-3.2	0.0
Colorado	0.8	-3.6	0.4
New Mexico	0.4	-2.4	0.6
Montana	0.4	-1.6	0.2
Oregon	-0.6	-5.1	0.6
Idaho	-1.0	-4.9	0.2
California	-1.2	-4.5	-0.9
Nevada	-2.0	-5.9	-2.5
Arizona	-2.1	-7.0	0.4
Forecast from IHS Global Insight, September 2009 *Year-to-Date employment through August from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

This year appears to be shaping up as the second consecutive year of job losses for Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada and Arizona. Job losses in Wyoming are a reversal from last year, when the state led the nation in the rate of creation of new jobs with an increase of 3.3 percent.

With employment down 7.0 percent year-to-date, Arizona is contending with Michigan as the state with the weakest labor market performance. Michigan has also lost 7.0 percent of nonfarm jobs in the past year. A major difference between the two state economies is that 2009 will likely mark the ninth consecutive year of job losses in Michigan. For Arizona, 2009 will bring the second year with fewer jobs.

Western Blue Chip analysts are projecting that at least three states (Utah, California and Nevada) will lose jobs again for the year as a whole in 2010. The national economy is expected to lose jobs in 2010 because economic growth will not be strong enough to significantly expand labor demand. Job growth will not reach 1 percent in any of the Western states, but will be strongest in Wyoming and Texas next year. California and Nevada are expected to see job losses for the third consecutive year.