New Orleans should try to become a more integrated city with far greater resilience as it rebuilds from its hurricane damage, according to experts at Arizona State University.

The economic, architectural, political and cultural shape of post-Katrina New Orleans will be determined by federal, state and local politicians, business interests -- and the relentless forces of wind, water and gravity.

The business culture of the city and its artistic ambiance are likely to change the least, because they are in the older, higher-elevation central business district and French Quarter. But the very nature of the low areas of eastern New Orleans -– which made such an inviting swamp refuge for people fleeing the Haitian revolution of 1791 to 1804 -– now brings vulnerability to that area. The system of pumps and levees which made the area habitable held off nature for 95 years -- until Katrina. The degree to which that area is not repopulated could bring societal and political change as evacuees stay out of New Orleans or the state of Louisiana permanently.

Politics and emotions

As New Orleans decides how much of the city's residential core should be repopulated (and what category of hurricane the 130-mile levee-and-floodwall system should be rebuilt to withstand), politics and emotions -- not to mention weather –- can get in the way, according to Edward Kavazanjian, an ASU professor of civil and environmental engineering.

"Unfortunately, it's not just an engineering decision," Kavazanjian says. "The water gets pumped out, and the reconstruction begins ... I'm not sure there's time for a rational analysis to be made."

The economic blow is staggering for businesses and residents.

Early estimates put Katrina's commercial insurance losses at $9 billion to $16
billion, according to the Sept. 5 issue of Engineering News Record. Subsequent estimates have been as high as $25 billion. "This number does not include residential losses covered by federal flood insurance," Kavazanjian says. New Orleans alone will exceed the record $21 billion in insured loss caused in South Florida in 1992 by Hurricane Andrew.

The uninsured loss will be huge as well. The hard economic reality that only about 40 percent of homeowners in New Orleans had government flood insurance through the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Flood Insurance Program. Basic commercial homeowner's insurance only covers fire and wind damage, not flooding.

Newark, Calif.-based Risk Management Solutions, which provides risk-management products and services, estimates Katrina's total Gulf Coast damage will exceed $100 billion and that the costs of interrupted economic activity exceed $100 million per day.

"The biggest unknown is business-interruption insurance costs," Kavazanjian says. "Total damage will be much higher due to uninsured losses -- including municipal and federal infrastructure -- and damage exceeding policy limits."

Kavazanjian says obvious precautions should be observed as residences are rebuilt. Structures with first floors should be hardened against flooding; shutoff valves should be used to prevent sewer overflows; power lines should be strung on poles instead of being buried. "Lifeline" facilities such as police stations and hospitals should incorporate new technology to better survive emergencies.

Most of New Orleans' architectural culture did survive because it mainly is tied to its old buildings.

"I think most of the monuments and classic buildings have survived intact," says Charles L. Redman, director of ASU's International Institute for Sustainability. "I think the issue is the ambiance of the poorer neighborhoods. I think this may be a 'renewal' that many
systems go through that eliminate the least substantial and replace it with newer units."

Addressing social concerns

Local and regional politics in Louisiana, dominated by the Democratic party, might change post-Katrina, but the nature of the change will depend on how much of the underclass of the city -- exposed in the national spotlight after Katrina -- stays away.

"I expect that even with a few of the homeless or federally evacuated people finding new homes, the demographic mix of New Orleans will be similar," Redman says. "I expect some well-to-do people to move on as well, or to neighboring towns like Lafayette ... I doubt that the city will attract many new people, but I do think there will be a 'selection' among residents who choose to return."

To the extent that New Orleans thoughtfully regroups, the focus will be on desirable attributes of a modern, post-Katrina city that go beyond floodwalls and buildings.

"Education, economic development, safety for citizens are the basics that will fix the economic problems that became evident to the world, but that still doesn't make it a great city," says New Orleans native Robert Mittelstaedt, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business. "It already has a lot of the arts and culture that has the potential to make it great, but they can't ignore the socioeconomic issues."

Will a scientific approach guarantee social progress?

 

"Generally, I think it is probably a mistake to see science as the key to social progress in New Orleans, given the strong socioeconomic and racial divides that exist there," says Daniel Sarewitz, director of the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at ASU. "On the other hand, if science is to play a role in social progress, then it will have to address the specific issues responsible for the inequities revealed by Katrina, ranging from substandard housing to inadequate education to the lack of decent job prospects."

Mittelstaedt envisions parts of the engulfed residential area to be converted to a "living floodplain," something that adds to the quality of life with parks, playgrounds and ball fields that can be used in good weather and that can be easily rehabilitated or fixed after a flood.

Who will be doing all of the planning and decision-making, and will there be turf battles and broken promises?

"I can't tell who is taking the opportunity seriously," Redman says. "This is a problem. There should be some seriously high-profile thinking going on, and I doubt that there is ... Clearly the follow-through will be the issue, once it is out of the limelight. I actually think that quite a bit will be poured in, largely because the companies that would benefit won't let the government forget."

"The more inclusive the planning process, the more diverse voices that are represented ... the more likely that the results will benefit the poor and otherwise disenfranchised," Sarewitz says.

Building resilience amid vulnerability

Another key attribute for a new New Orleans will be resilience.

 

"The Gulf region and the nation need to think carefully about leadership, communication assets and capacities, and resilience," says John Hall, professor of public affairs and co-leader of ASU's Resilience Solutions Group. "New Orleans will rebuild, but it is necessary for people to prepare for other potential disasters with this horrific case in mind."

Hall says the community will be more resilient if investment is made in its civic infrastructure and social capital.

"It is a chance to do things right, to let public needs and the public good lead the rebuilding," Hall says. "That will take a regional approach, one that is inclusive and fully democratic. Normally the U.S. does not do a good job with regional planning and development. Short-term gains outweigh long-term, coherent plans.

 

"We 'morselize' public policy, concoct small projects and fund them partially," Hall adds. "A 21st-century metropolitan prototype will require much better intergovernmental planning and collaboration. Were these elements emphasized and effective, the New Orleans region could become a leader in U.S. metropolitan development."

"I would expect a city that, in many ways, is not that different in feel from what existed before," says Braden Allenby, ASU's Lincoln Professor of Engineering and Ethics. "Reconstruction projects after disasters are usually bounded by what remains of the infrastructure and urban system; in this case, unlike for example 9/11, much of the city has been ruined, so from this perspective the option space for New Orleans reconstruction is actually fairly broad."

Conversely, Allenby says, the strength of a city's cultural patterns also limit its rebuilding options, and New Orleans is a powerful cultural icon. The key to greater resilience for New Orleans is not just a matter of wisely redesigning the city's physical assets, he says, but in integrating all its resources.

"Some of the problems the flooding created were the result of building design; some were the result of extraordinary gaps between rich and poor in New Orleans; some were the result of pre-disaster distribution of resources: Louisiana National Guard units in Iraq,' Allenby says. "The real trick in these situations is understanding the system as a system."

He advocates a strong zoning structure that bans single-family housing in the lowest areas, some of which would be used instead for industrial and/or warehouse functions. "Then let people do their own thing within that framework," Allenby says.

He says the whole Mississippi Delta region and New Orleans should have recovery goals that take into account the environment, economic activity, local culture, quality of life, enhanced communication technology and protection of the energy infrastructure.

 

"Much of our problem comes from continuing to treat each part of the system as if it were independent,' Allenby says. "The challenge is not necessarily in identifying each option; that is only the first step. The more difficult step is looking at resilience of the city across scales and systems to try to achieve systemic resiliency."

But New Orleans's future all comes back to first, making smart decisions about how much of the city should be repopulated and second, how grand a pump-and-levee system to employ.

"How long are you going to hold back the forces of nature?" Kavazanjian asks. "Geotechnical issues don't prevent anything from being rebuilt. It's just a question of money."